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El Niño to deliver major blow to communities – World Meteorological Organization warns
09th September, 2026 07:01 PM
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño is set to intensify into a very strong event, raising the risk of extreme weather and significant disruption to communities and economies around the world.
According to the WMO, the effects of El Niño will not be the same everywhere, with its local impacts expected to differ depending on the region and other climate conditions.
“El Niño will deliver a major blow to communities, economies & supply chains worldwide. Its local impacts may differ,” WMO warned.
The UN weather agency further said El Niño is already firmly established and is expected to strengthen further in the coming months, increasing the risk of major changes in rainfall and temperature patterns, as well as floods, drought and extreme heat.
According to WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, the weather phenomenon was already causing disruption in some parts of the world, with the impacts expected to increase as El Niño intensifies.
“El Niño in Spanish means “boy child”, but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world. We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies,” Saulo said.
El Niño expected to persist into 2027
The warning comes as forecasts show an exceptionally high likelihood that El Niño will persist into next year.
The WMO said there is a nearly 100 per cent likelihood that El Niño will continue through February 2027, with the phenomenon expected to reach very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of 2026.
“Forecasts from WMO’s Global Producing Centres indicate an ‘exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100% that El Niño will persist through to February 2027,” WMO stated.
The forecast is being driven by exceptionally warm conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have continued to rise, providing strong support for the further intensification of El Niño.
What the warning means for communities
The WMO said the developing El Niño could affect climate-sensitive sectors, including agriculture, health, energy and water resources, making preparedness and early-warning systems particularly important.
The agency and national meteorological services are therefore stepping up preparedness efforts to help governments, communities and other stakeholders respond to potential weather-related risks.
For Kenya and the wider region, locally relevant forecasts remain important because the effects of El Niño can vary significantly from one location to another.
The WMO said national meteorological and hydrological services remain the authoritative source of official warnings and locally relevant climate information as the phenomenon continues to develop.
