5 things that would likely happen if Raila loses the AUC election
As the African Union Commission (AUC) election unfolds, all eyes are on Raila Odinga whose bid to chair the continental body has captivated political circles across Africa.
The AUC election is scheduled to take place today, February 15, 2025, during the 38th AU Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Should Raila fail to clinch the coveted seat, the implications could reverberate far beyond the walls of the AU’s headquarters.
Here are five potential consequences of a Raila defeat.
1. Rekindled presence in Kenyan politics
For over two decades, Raila Odinga has been a defining force in Kenyan politics.
His pursuit of the AUC position was seen by many as a graceful exit from the often-bruising domestic political scene.
Raila’s AUC election loss would certainly alter the trajectory of Kenyan politics.
With his political machinery still intact and his supporters yearning for leadership, Raila might reconsider retirement, potentially setting the stage for his sixth presidential bid in 2027 or Baba could play the kingmaker as he did in 2002 when he endorsed late President Mwai Kibaki leading to his overwhelming victory in the presidential election that brought an end to 36 years of KANU rule.
2. Shift in ODM’s leadership dynamics
The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), the party Raila led for decades, has been in a state of transition.
Raila left ODM leadership to Kisumu governor Anyang’ Nyong’o in an acting capacity to concentrate on AUC campaigns.
His departure from ODM accelerated succession plans with many in the ODM angling themselves to succeed Baba should he win AUC.
A failed bid, however, might delay or even complicate the party’s reorganization, as Raila’s role remains central to ODM cohesion.
The younger generation of ODM leaders, like Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and others who had begun positioning themselves as Raila’s political heirs, may find themselves waiting longer than anticipated if Baba fails to win the AUC election.
3. Political realignments in opposition
Raila’s exit from active politics was expected to open a vacuum within the opposition landscape, offering figures like Kalonzo Musyoka and Martha Karua a chance to assert leadership.
A loss in the AUC election could instead reignite Raila’s influence, forcing opposition figures to rethink their strategies and alliances.
Baba’s continued presence would also shape how the opposition engages with President William Ruto’s administration in the coming years.
4. Kenya’s regional and diplomatic standing
A victory for Raila would have solidified Kenya’s growing diplomatic clout, reinforcing its position as a key player in African affairs.
A loss, however, may raise questions about Kenya’s influence within the AU and beyond.
It could also be a moment of introspection for President Ruto’s government, which had thrown its support behind Raila Odinga’s candidacy, seeing it as a way to strengthen Kenya’s continental role.
5. Re-evaluation of Raila’s legacy
Few African politicians have had careers as enduring and transformative as Raila Odinga’s.
While an AUC victory would have been a crowning achievement, a loss might prompt fresh evaluations of his political journey.
Would he attempt one last run for Kenya’s presidency, or would he take on an elder statesman role, advising on governance and democracy across the continent?
Either way, Raila’s legacy remains a subject of debate – one shaped as much by his victories as by his setbacks
For now, as the AU’s 38th Summit unfolds in Addis Ababa, Raila Odinga’s fate, and the ripple effects of its outcome, hang in the balance.
Kenya, and Africa at large, watch AUC elections closely.
Author
Martin Oduor
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