Following Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the US presidential election, Saboti MP Caleb Amisi issued a cautionary statement, warning of potential difficulties for President William Ruto’s administration.
Amisi, a known critic of Ruto, took to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) on Wednesday, November 6, 2024, expressing concerns that Trump’s return to power could complicate Kenya’s relationship with the United States.
According to Amisi, unlike outgoing President Joe Biden, Trump is likely to adopt a more transactional approach to foreign aid, with a markedly different stance toward Africa.
“Trump win is bad news to the ruto administration. Trump abhors foreign aid as a means of developing Africa. He will not meet ruto to dish out free sanitary towels and mosquito nets,” Amisi wrote.
The lawmaker’s comments seemed aimed at highlighting a shift in US foreign policy priorities, contrasting Biden’s aid-focused approach with what he anticipates will be Trump’s preference for self-reliance among African nations.
Kenya’s non-NATO ally status at stake
Amisi suggested that Trump’s administration may even reconsider Kenya’s status as a major non-NATO ally.
This designation was granted by President Biden on May 24, 2024, making Kenya the first sub-Saharan African country to receive this status.
Amisi argued that Trump’s perspective on military alliances could lead to a re-evaluation of this designation.
“He will disapprove Kenya as a non Nato ally unless they demonstrate military capability befitting a regional hegemony,” he warned, suggesting Kenya may have to bolster its military influence to retain this important alliance.
Potential funding cuts for Kenya’s Haiti Mission
Amisi also pointed out that Kenya’s US-backed leadership role in a peacekeeping mission in Haiti might be in jeopardy under Trump’s administration.
Kenya agreed to lead the multinational operation with US support, including a $300 million commitment from Washington and the deployment of 1,000 Kenyan police officers to assist in stabilizing Haiti.
However, Amisi expressed concerns that Trump might not be as committed to financing this initiative, especially given his campaign promise to reduce foreign aid commitments.
“He will withdraw the US-funded program in Haiti,” Amisi stated, before speculating that Trump’s diplomatic strategy in Africa might instead center on countering Chinese influence.
“But Most likely, he might visit a few Africa nations…just for relations purposes and the prevention of China massive capital intensive infrastructure influence,” he posted, suggesting Trump could prioritize strategic visits to African nations to counter China’s expanding influence in the region.
In Amisi’s view, Trump’s election could spur Kenya to become less dependent on Western economic support.
“Kenya will now be forced to work hard and stop over reliance on Western economic bloc! Kenya needs a Renaissance!” Amisi wrote.
Biden’s administration
Kenya’s diplomatic ties with the US flourished under President Joe Biden, who built a particularly close relationship with President Ruto.
On May 22, 2024, Ruto became the first African leader to be invited to Washington DC on a state visit in over 15 years, receiving a high-level reception at the White House.
Ruto and Biden discussed multiple issues, from climate change to economic cooperation and peacekeeping, including Kenya’s role in the Haiti mission.
Additionally, US Ambassador to Kenya Meg Whitman has been so close to Ruto – something that many Kenyans have complained about.
Whitman, a billionaire former CEO of companies such as eBay and Hewlett Packard Enterprises, has been a champion of Kenya and its investment potential, drawing attention to the country’s role as a tech and investment hub dubbed the Silicon Savannah.
Domestically, Ruto’s administration has faced challenges, including public unrest over economic policies, yet on the global stage, he has positioned himself as an advocate for Africa on issues like climate change and debt relief.
Ruto attended the G7 2024 Summit in Italy where he once again rubbed shoulders with Biden and other world leaders.
All is not lost
Even though there are fears Trump’s administration may not foster a closer relationship with Kenya, this may not be entirely the case after all.
The US needs Kenya closer to it regardless of whether the occupant of the White House is a Democrat or a Republican.
In an era where China is threatening US hegemony, Trump can’t afford to leave allies like Kenya in the cold.
It should be remembered that when Trump was president in his first term in office he hosted former President Uhuru Kenyatta at the White House on February 6, 2020.
Trump on February 7, 2020, announced the United States’ intention to initiate trade agreement negotiations with Kenya following a meeting at the White House with then-President Uhuru Kenyatta.
“Kenya is a recognized leader across the continent, an important strategic partner of the United States, and there is enormous potential for us to deepen our economic and commercial ties,” then-US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in a statement.
“Under President Trump’s leadership, we look forward to negotiating and concluding a comprehensive, high-standard agreement with Kenya that can serve as a model for additional agreements across Africa.
“We believe this agreement with Kenya will complement Africa’s regional integration efforts, including in the East African Community and the landmark African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and the United States pledges its continued support to help the AfCFTA achieve its fullest potential. We believe a trade agreement between the United States and Kenya will receive broad bipartisan support in Congress.”
Uhuru met with Trump once before in August 2018, when the White House said that the two leaders established the US-Kenya Bilateral Strategic Dialogue.
It should also be noted that during his 10-year rule, Uhuru Kenyatta was hosted at the White House by three US Presidents – Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
Obama hosted Uhuru at the White House on August 5, 2014, during a US-Africa Leaders Summit dinner.
Uhuru then hosted Barack Obama at State House, Nairobi during his 2-day state visit to Kenya on July 24, 2015.
On October 15, 2021, Uhuru became the first African President to be invited to the White House by President Joe Biden who had just taken over from Trump.
These interactions by Kenyan and American presidents (both Republican and Democrat) are clear indications of how the US is deeply vested in Kenya.
