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Red Cross warns of severe flood risks as Kenya braces for El Niño
26th August, 2026 09:28 PM
The Kenya Red Cross Society has raised an alert following the seasonal weather outlook released by the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority for the October to December 2026 Short Rains season.
Kenya Red Cross Secretary General Ahmed Idris highlighted major hazard areas as global climate conditions point to enhanced rainfall across most parts of the country.
Reacting to the forecast, Idris shared the key emergency scenarios the organisation is gearing up to handle.
In his statement on X on Wednesday, August 26, 2026, Idris outlined critical threats, noting that “rivers bursting their banks” will trigger severe flooding across multiple basins, including the Tana River Basin covering Garissa, Hola, and Garsen.
He added that the Lake Victoria Basin around Nzoia, Nyando, and Kuja, the Athi-Galana-Sabaki Basin spanning Machakos, Makueni, and Kajiado to downstream coastal areas, the Rift Valley Basin along the Perkerra and Mara Rivers, and the Nairobi Rivers Basin involving Mathare, Nairobi, and Ngong Rivers face heavy flood risks.
Six key risk areas identified
Idris pointed out “localised flash floods and surface run offs in both urban and rural areas creating risks of washing away crops, homes, infrastructure and potential loss of lives”.
Ground water saturation in steep areas across the Central Highlands, Rift Valley, and Western Kenya is likely to cause landslides.
The Secretary General also highlighted rising water levels in Lakes Baringo, Naivasha, Nakuru, Turkana, and Victoria as a factor that could displace residents.
Additional concerns include potential outbreaks of waterborne diseases and severe disruption of food production and distribution networks.
“We are planning for the worst. We pray for the best,” Idris said.
Kenya Red Cross outlines emergency response measures
In a separate statement, the Kenya Red Cross confirmed that the heavy downpours will be driven by a strong El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
The humanitarian agency warned of road cutoffs that could disrupt key highways, bridges, power infrastructure, schools, and health facilities.
The organisation noted that the lower Tana Basin, Wajir, Mandera, Lamu, and parts of the Lake Victoria Basin remain among the highest risk zones for community displacement.
“For context: the 2023/24 El Niño displaced over 500,000 people across 43 counties. This season’s severity index is projected even higher,” the Kenya Red Cross stated.
The agency stressed that “the window between now and the onset of the rains is critical”.
It added that the Kenya Red Cross is actively collaborating with government agencies and sector partners to ensure early warnings translate into immediate protective action before the rains begin.
