El Niño: Kenya Met warns of heavy downpours across 80 per cent of the country
By Dan Kauna, August 26, 2026The Kenya Meteorological Department has predicted a prolonged wet period in most parts of the country in its seasonal forecast for the October to December 2026 Short Rains season.
In a statement on August 26, 2026, the department predicted widespread downpours across most regions, driven by global climate conditions.
The weatherman noted that “the Climate Outlook for the October–December 2026 ‘Short Rains’ season indicates that above-average rainfall is expected over 80% of the Country”.
The agency added that “this season will be marked by prolonged wet spells and occasional isolated storms over several parts of the country”.
Rainfall distribution and region timelines
The department stated that rainfall will continue in Western parts of Kenya and begin during the second and third week of October in other parts of the country.
Official forecast maps point to heavy rainfall. Key areas set for above-average wetness include Nairobi, Kiambu, Nakuru, Kakamega, Mombasa, and Garissa.
Post by Kenya Met Department. PHOTO/Screengrab by K24 Digital from X/@MeteoKenya
Light green shading covering Turkana and parts of West Pokot, Samburu, and Marsabit marks areas expecting near-average to above-average rainfall.
Counties in Western Kenya, the Rift Valley, and the Lake Victoria Basin, including Nandi, Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, Kisumu, and Kericho, will experience continuous rains from September straight into January 2027.
In the Central Highlands, Nairobi, and Southeastern lowlands, the rains will start between the second and fourth weeks of October, stretching into January 2027.
Northern counties including Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, and Isiolo will record onset between the second and third weeks of October, with rains stopping by the second week of December.
Strengthening El Niño and warmer conditions
Strong climate signals in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are driving the heavy rainfall forecast. Kenya Met explained that “the 2026 El Niño event continues to intensify across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific”.
The authority recorded a weekly Niño 3.4 index of “+2.7°C” in mid-August, confirming that “El Niño is strengthening further and evolving toward a very strong event”.
Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole index stood at “+0.17°C” as of August 23, 2026, and is projected to cross the positive threshold during September.
Alongside the heavy rain, warmer temperatures will persist. Map data indicates that all counties will record warmer than average mean temperatures.
A higher probability of warmer temperatures covers the coastal strip and eastern parts, including Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, Tana River, Taita Taveta, and Garissa.