Mutahi Ngunyi claims Raila’s exit from broad-based govt could delay 2027 elections
By Aloys Michael, July 28, 2025Political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi has ignited debate with a provocative and controversial claim suggesting that Raila Odinga’s withdrawal from the Kenya Kwanza alliance, along with the resignation of ministers allied to him, could derail the 2027 general elections.
The remarks come amid a push by the ODM Secretary General, and a section of leaders want the end of the pact between Odinga and President William Ruto.
On Friday, July 25, 2025, during the faction’s county delegates meeting in Kakamega, Raila said that the party is going to review the UDA-ODM pact what signalling a looming political rift, even as Odinga and some of his staunch allies insist that they will honour the memorandum until 2027.
In a statement on his X account on Monday, July 28, 2025, Ngunyi warned that if Raila pulls out and his ministers resign before 2027, it could trigger a crisis that would delay elections until 2032.
“If Raila walks away from Ruto, and his ministers RESIGN before the 2027 elections, what HAPPENS? He did it to Moi in 2002. If he does it, there will be NO presidential elections in 2027. The President, Governors, and MCA will remain in office until 2032,” Ngunyi wrote.
Ngunyi drew a parallel to 2002, when Raila’s breakaway from President Daniel arap Moi’s regime led to a landmark opposition victory, but legal experts say the situations are vastly different.
Otieno’s arguments
Constitutional lawyer Willis Otieno has categorically dismissed Ngunyi’s assertion as misleading.
“Cabinet resignations cannot derail a general election. Kenya’s Constitution is clear that elections must be held every five years. Anything outside that would be unconstitutional and legally untenable,” Otieno asserted.
Under Article 136 of the Kenyan Constitution, presidential elections are held on the second Tuesday of August every fifth year. The resignation of cabinet secretaries who are appointed by the President and not elected does not have any bearing on that schedule.
Otieno said that the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is constitutionally mandated to conduct elections as scheduled, and any postponement would require the declaration of a state of emergency subject to strict legal and parliamentary thresholds.
As the Raila-Ruto partnership faces growing strain, Ngunyi’s remarks reflect the wider anxiety within political circles. But for now, legal experts affirm that Kenya’s electoral timeline remains intact and 2027 is not moving.