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How World Cup final could decide 2026 Ballon d’Or race
17th July, 2026 08:51 AM
The debate surrounding the frontrunners for the 2026 Ballon d’Or has once again taken centre stage in football circles as the FIFA World Cup enters its final two games this weekend.
France and England will contend for the third-place playoff on Saturday, July 18, 2026, in Miami, before the tournament concludes with a mouth-watering showdown as reigning world champions Argentina face European champions Spain in the final at the New York New Jersey Stadium on Sunday, July 19, 2026.
The battle for the Ballon d’Or, set to be awarded in October, has featured a star-studded list of contenders in recent months, including Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, Lionel Messi, Spanish wonderkid Lamine Yamal, Portuguese star Cristiano Ronaldo, and his Paris Saint-Germain teammates Vitinha and João Neves.
However, the favoured candidates have shifted significantly following the elimination of several big-name players firing on all cylinders in the North American tournament, dramatically narrowing down the shortlist.
Mbappe, Kane hope dwindle
Despite sharing the 2024 Gerd Müller Trophy after prolific scoring seasons, both Kylian Mbappé and Harry Kane have seen their Ballon d’Or hopes fade following their teams’ semifinal exits.
Heading into the final weekend, Lionel Messi and Lamine Yamal have emerged as the central figures, both chasing contrasting pieces of history.
The 19-year-old Yamal is looking to solidify his status as the most sensational teenage finalist in World Cup history, while the 39-year-old Messi aims to guide the Albiceleste to a consecutive world title.
With a not-so-imposing form in the World Cup so far, Yamal’s chances could be aided more with a dominant game in Sunday’s final.
No guarantees
Historically, the winner of the Ballon d’Or has often had their hands on a major trophy, and Sunday’s World Cup final is poised to crown the definitive favorite.
While World Cup winners have historically dominated the Ballon d’Or, organisers have previously asserted that winning the tournament alone does not completely guarantee the coveted individual accolade.
Still, securing a major international trophy remains a vital cornerstone of any player’s campaign.
Manchester City and Spain’s enforcer Rodri proved this in the 2024 race when he edged out Real Madrid’s Vinícius Júnior. While both players enjoyed immense club success, Rodri’s triumph at Euro 2024 ultimately gave him the decisive advantage over the Brazilian winger.
Meanwhile, the official Ballon d’Or organisers have released a statement confirming that players active outside of European leagues remain fully eligible to win the award. The statement clarified that no geographical restriction has existed since 2007, when the prize was opened to players globally.
Nevertheless, it remains to be seen if any distant favourites from outside Europe’s elite leagues will make the final shortlist, aside from Messi.
Should the Argentine maestro lead his nation to victory over Spain on Sunday, he could very well be on his way to securing a historic ninth Ballon d’Or crown come October.
