TIFA: Nyanza highest in election skepticism
A new survey by Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA) has revealed stark regional divides in how Kenyans perceive the integrity of past elections, with Nyanza emerging as the most sceptical region in the country.
According to the report released on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, nearly half of Nyanza residents (48%) believe that none of the last three presidential elections were valid.
Only 16% of respondents in the region said all three were legitimate, marking the lowest level of electoral confidence nationwide.
“However, scepticism is highest in Nyanza, where 48% believe none of the elections were valid, and only 16% believe all were valid,” the report read in part.
In contrast, regions such as Mt Kenya and the Central Rift showed relatively higher levels of trust in the electoral process.
In both regions, close to four in ten respondents—39% in Mt. Kenya and 38% in Central Rift—said they believed all three elections were valid. Meanwhile, scepticism was also notably high in Lower Eastern and Nairobi, where 41–43% of residents said either none or only one or two of the presidential contests were valid.
“Confidence is relatively higher in Central Rift (38%) and Mt Kenya (39%), where more respondents say all elections were valid. Lower Eastern and Nairobi also show substantial doubts, with 41–43% believing none or only 1–2 elections were valid.”
The survey further highlights a strong correlation between general views on the overall integrity of Kenyan elections and opinions on the outcomes of the last three presidential races.
Among respondents who described Kenya’s elections as generally free and fair, one-third said they believed all three presidential outcomes were valid. Only 6% of this group rejected all the results.
On the other hand, among those who viewed Kenyan elections as neither free nor fair, only 27% accepted the validity of the presidential results, while a significant majority—62%—believed that none of the results were correct.
“In comparing views about the integrity of Kenyan elections in general with the perceived integrity of the last three presidential contests, there is a clear and consistent correlation in that those having a positive view about the former are decidedly more likely to express doubt about the latter.”
Confidence in polls
The report also says that half of Kenyans have no confidence in the integrity of the 2027 general election.
The poll shows that 50 per cent of Kenyans doubt the credibility of the upcoming election. Only 20 per cent of the respondents said they had complete confidence in the process, while 21 per cent were somewhat confident.
“As of now, the issue of the perceived integrity of the country’s electoral processes remains a challenge, with half of all Kenyans (50%) expressing a complete lack of confidence in the integrity of the 2027 contests. By contrast, only one-fifth (20%) express complete confidence in their integrity, while a similar proportion (21%) are ‘somewhat confident’ about them,” TIFA noted.
According to TIFA, the main concerns raised by Kenyans include political interference, corruption, and lack of trust in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC). These three issues were seen as the biggest threats to a credible election in 2027.
Among those with no confidence in the election, 30 per cent cited political interference as their top concern, 29 per cent pointed to corruption, voter bribery, and vote theft, while 23 per cent said they did not trust the IEBC.
Other issues mentioned include violence and insecurity at 7 per cent, fears that the president or other candidates may refuse to accept defeat at 2 per cent, technology failures at 2 per cent, a history of rigging at 1 per cent, and insufficient time to prepare for the elections at 1 per cent. Five per cent either did not give a clear reason or chose not to respond.
