Majority of Kenyans predict Raila will support Ruto in 2027 – TIFA
A majority of Kenyans believe Raila Odinga will support President William Ruto in his bid to retain the presidency in the 2027 elections.
The data suggests Raila’s political capital remains pivotal in shaping Kenya’s next election, with 32 per cent believing he will support the incumbent.
You might also like
“For their part, nearly half of those opposed to the BBG believe he will have rejoined the opposition by 2027, whether or not he actually contests the presidency yet again (20% + 26% = 46%), the survey reads.
“Another issue about which expectations are clearly influenced by attitudes towards the BBG is that of Raila Odinga’s expected political position in 2027, with almost twice as many who support it expecting that he will back Ruto’s re-election as compared with those who oppose it (46% vs. 28%),” the poll reads.
TIFA says, however, that more than one-third of all Kenyans expect him to rejoin the Opposition, whether he contests himself (22 per cent) or supports another candidate against Ruto (17 per cent), making a total of 39 per cent.
This comes after the former prime minister hinted that ODM might field a presidential candidate in the 2027 elections.
“Even about one-quarter of BBG supporters expect that he will have turned his back on the current BBG arrangement by rejoining the Opposition, whether he contests or not (11% + 15% = 26%),” TIFA said.
His alliance with Ruto in the Broad-Based Government (BBG) has already sparked heated debate, with critics branding it a betrayal and supporters framing it as statesmanship.
Despite the criticism, support for the broad-based government continues to rise.
TIFA’s regional analysis highlights striking variations. In Mt Kenya, the majority anticipate Raila will support Ruto’s re-election bid, reflecting strong local backing for the BBG arrangement.
However, in Nyanza, Raila’s traditional stronghold, many respondents believe he will eventually break ranks and return to the opposition.
“Expectations about Raila’s 2027 role are largely coloured by regional loyalties and perceptions of the BBG,” the report observed, noting that political realignments have blurred traditional party boundaries.
The findings underline the uncertainty surrounding the succession race. “Kenyans remain unsure whether Raila will be a candidate himself, a coalition kingmaker, or a retiree. But what is clear is that his choices will decisively shape the 2027 contest,” TIFA added.
This 2nd Release is based on a TIFA national survey conducted between 23 August and 3 September. 2,023 randomly selected Kenyan adults (aged 18 and above) across all 47 counties were interviewed at their residences.
