Gakuya explains how Ruto will target ODM strongholds after Raila’s death
By Aloys Michael, October 28, 2025Embakasi North Member of Parliament James Gakuya believes President William Ruto is already laying the groundwork for a sweeping political realignment ahead of the 2027 elections, one that targets traditional ODM strongholds left vulnerable after the exit of Raila Odinga from active politics.
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Speaking on Tuesday, October 28, 2025, during an interview on a local TV station, Gakuya said Raila’s absence has created what he called a vacuum of unity within the ODM, one that President Ruto is keen to exploit.
“They always called it the elusive unity that has never voted as a block. And now with the exit of Raila Odinga, ODM may still be there, but the focus now is on the answer, not really Western Kenya, that is a big opportunity, even for the side that you support right now,” the MP argued.
While the post-Raila-era succession politics continue to take shape, Gakuya has said there will be shifting political sands across regions once considered ODM turf.
It is a game of wait and see, as each camp is now focused on beefing up its troops ahead of the 2027 poll. At the same time, questions linger on whether ODM will still maintain its grip on its vote-rich regions.
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According to Gakuya, without Raila’s unifying influence, the opposition will struggle to retain its foothold in Western Kenya, the Coast, and Nyanza.
“I do not see anybody who has the equivalent of Raila going forward. Therefore, the first base that is going to be split, and the element of the strength of ODM, is going to go down by almost half. Where it stands is the Western Region,” he said.
The lawmaker said that even before Raila’s formal exit, voter sentiment in Western Kenya had begun to change.
“The crowd has changed. There is that element of strong inroads by the ruling side, and as much as the UDA will keep a strong battle there, if the opposition works, it is limited. The region may split in half, the half may go to UDA,” he observed.
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Gakuya added that Ruto’s strategy would likely hinge on building partnerships, even with remnants of ODM itself.
“Ruto will not sleep. He will work day and night to make sure that he still retains ODM on his side. Most of the supporters, especially leaders, will buy that idea. In the Western region, probably the battle will be opposition versus ODM-UDA together,” he said.
Ruto has already extended his charm offensive to the Kenya African National Union (KANU) Party chairman, Gideon Moi, to solidify the North Rift region, as Mt.Kenya remains slippery after the ouster of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
Gakuya argues this recent re-emergence of KANU in talks with UDA is an example of Ruto’s growing coalition-building drive.
“We have seen KANU now joining the partnership. And I’m very sure this particular marriage or partnership that Sifuna has told us will end, may actually transform before 2027,” the legislator noted.
Gakuya also predicted political fragmentation at the Coast and in Nyanza, areas that have long been ODM bastions. He pointed out that leaders like former Mombasa governor Hassan Joho might lack the room and say they once had.
“The Coast base is open for battle. As much as Joho is a Cabinet minister, he may not control the political field.”
In Nyanza, Gakuya foresees an even more fluid situation.
“Every rule is not going to support the fragments. The leaders might be united, but the voters, especially the youth, might split.”
Still, Gakuya expressed confidence that Ruto would remain the kingpin of UDA and continue drawing affiliates across party lines.
“William will still keep his hold. And by 2027, he’ll be ready for any battle,” he asserted.