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Liverpool’s top-five failure could cost Ksh20B
04th March, 2026 04:07 PM
“The stakes are very high,” Liverpool captain Virgil van Dijk said after Tuesday’s surprise 2-1 Premier League defeat to Wolves.
The loss at Molineux left Liverpool in fifth place, which is almost certain to be enough to qualify for the Champions League.
But the table is tight. The Reds have only a three-point cushion over Chelsea, who face fourth-placed Aston Villa in their game in hand on Wednesday.
“Either we get it, and we deserve it, or we don’t get it, and we don’t deserve it,” Van Dijk said.
“If you play for Liverpool, it’s always been like this. It’s down to us, together with our fans, to get the results we need to reach the Champions League.”
Beyond the sporting implications, there are huge financial implications at stake.
Failure to qualify for the Champions League could be worth as much as Ksh20,731,008,000 (£120M), according to football finance expert Kieran Maguire, who also said the Reds are better placed to weather such a drop because they are well run.
Prize money and commercial opportunities are significantly lower in the other European competitions.
UEFA’s financial report shows that Arne Slot’s side earned 98.1m euros (£85.3m) in distribution payments for reaching the last 16 of the Champions League in the 2024-25 season.
When Liverpool were in the Europa League in 2023-24, they got just 26.8m euros (£23.3m) for reaching the quarter finals.
Winning the tournament would help bridge the funding gap slightly.
Tottenham received 41.4m euros (£36m) after lifting the Europa League last season, but Chelsea were paid just 21.8m euros (£20m) from the Conference League.
Maguire said the loss of money from UEFA would only be part of the story.
“It also has an impact on matchday receipts,” Maguire said. “It has an effect on broadcasting money.
“It will mean lower commercial revenues because there will be bonuses embedded in contracts with senior sponsors.”
At the high end, Maguire thinks being out of the Champions League could in total cost Liverpool around £120m.
Liverpool splashed out more than £400m last summer, signing players such as Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak.
It was the biggest spending by a club in a transfer window.
But Maguire says Liverpool are extremely well run. One season outside the Champions League might not have a huge effect, he said.
Last week, Liverpool announced record revenues of Ksh121,449,155,200 (£703M) for the club’s most recent financial year through May 2025. The club returned a profit of Ksh1,382,067,200 (£8m).
Even with last year’s signings, Liverpool are only eighth on net transfer spend over the last five years.
“While they did have a significant transfer outlay, you have to take a long-term view of their spending,” Maguire said.
“It’s still substantially behind the two Manchester clubs and Chelsea in particular.”
UEFA’s latest benchmarking report says Chelsea made a pre-tax loss of Ksh61,329,232,000 (£355M) for 2024-25.
Will Liverpool have any problems complying with financial rules?
“The simple answer is no,” Maguire added. “They are very forensic in terms of their financial analysis.”
Being out of the Champions League could, of course, affect the players they might attract to Anfield.
For Van Dijk and Liverpool, being in the top competition will remain vital regardless of the money involved.
