Kenya is expected to experience below-average rainfall during the March to May (MAM) 2025 season, particularly in its eastern and northern regions, according to a new forecast from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).
The forecast, titled ‘Climate Outlook,’ was unveiled in Addis Ababa on January 21, 2025.
It indicates that the cross-border areas of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia will face particularly dry conditions during what is typically one of the most important rainfall periods for the equatorial region, which contributes up to 60 per cent of the annual rainfall.
“Below-average rainfall is expected in much of Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, southern and north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea, western South Sudan, southern and western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western Tanzania. There is an enhanced likelihood of below normal conditions for the cross-border areas of Ethiopia-Kenya-Somalia, southern Eritrea, and parts of southwestern South Sudan,” the statement reads.
The report indicates that western Kenya could receive more than 200 mm of rainfall during this period. However, central Kenya may experience delays at the onset of the rainy season.
“There is a high chance (over 70%) that the seasonal rainfall will exceed 200 mm in south-western Ethiopia, western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania,” the weatherman states.
Warm weather
The forecast also warns of warmer-than-average temperatures across the region, with northern Kenya showing over a 75% probability of experiencing above-normal temperatures.
During the launch of the report, Dr Abdi Fidar, ICPAC Officer in Charge, addressed the increasing climate challenges facing the region.
“As the IGAD region faces increasing climate variability and extremes—droughts, floods, and rising temperatures—platforms like GHACOFs are essential for building a shared understanding of risks and fostering collaboration to mitigate their impacts,” he stated.
Weather advisory
ICPAC warns that these predicted weather conditions could disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, particularly women, children, elderly individuals, and people with disabilities.
“The predicted climatic conditions for the MAM 2025 season are likely to have gender-differentiated impacts on the affected populations, with more adverse effects expected to be pronounced among women, children, older persons, and persons with disabilities,” ICPAC stated.
