Kagwanja explains why Ruto and Gachagua will likely shake hands before 2027
By David Nthua, July 29, 2025Prof Peter Kagwanja, one of the political pundits in Kenya, has predicted that President William Ruto and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua will likely shake hands before the 2027 poll.
Speaking to one of the local TV stations on Tuesday, July 29, 2025, the outspoken political commentator said that the two leaders are likely to come back together due to the political realities on the ground.
Mount Kenya support matters
Kagwanja said President Ruto knows very well that he cannot win without numbers and that he needs the support of the Mount Kenya region. He said this understanding will push him to make peace with Gachagua, who has gained popularity in the region.
“The anger in Mount Kenya over betrayal is what will shape the 2027 election. Gachagua and his allies are going to emerge as a major political bloc,” Kagwanja stated.
He added that although Gachagua is not a member of UDA, he still holds a strong influence in Mount Kenya. Kagwanja suggested that a coalition between Gachagua and Ruto is possible, even if UDA loses its grip on the region.
“Do not be surprised if there is a coalition between Gachagua and Ruto, with Gachagua, who is not a member of UDA and Ruto, who will have only a small UDA faction remaining in Mount Kenya, where the party has been largely liquidated,” Kagwanja said.
Handshake based on unity
According to Kagwanja, the handshake between the two will likely be based on the idea of national equality, not just party loyalty. He also predicted that in such a case, opposition leader Raila Odinga may find himself left out of the political arrangement.
“In 2027, we are likely to see Gachagua and Ruto come together based on national equality, while Raila will be marginalised,” Kagwanja said.
He urged Kenyans to watch the evolving political landscape closely, noting that the realignments are far from over.
So far, neither President Ruto nor former Deputy President Gachagua has commented on Kagwanja’s remarks.