David Ndii warns half of payroll jobs in Kenya will vanish
By William Muthama, September 20, 2025Presidential Council of Economic Advisors Chairperson David Ndii has cautioned Kenyans to brace for a massive shake-up in the labour market, warning that Artificial Intelligence (AI) and digitalisation will wipe out half of the country’s payroll jobs.
Through a post on Saturday, September 20, 2025, through his X account, Ndii cautioned that the workforce must prepare for dramatic change as reliance on formal employment becomes less sustainable in a digital economy.
“I have news for you… Digitisation and Artificial Intelligence will eat 50 per cent of payroll jobs, Ndii wrote, stressing that Kenyans must prepare for a new reality rather than resist it.”
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Ndii said the pace of technological change was already clear in industries such as banking, where automation has steadily replaced workers over the last decade.
“The bank’s workforce flatlined a decade ago,” he remarked, noting that digital transformation was a reality Kenyans could no longer ignore.
According to him, formal jobs are only a small fraction of Kenya’s labour market.
“Payroll jobs are 15 per cent of Kenya’s workforce,” he explained, adding that the majority, 85 per cent, already depend on informal work for survival. He stressed that clinging to formal employment was no longer sustainable.
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Gig economy future
Ndii projected that within the next 15 years, most employment opportunities would be found in the gig economy, a system driven by temporary contracts, freelance projects, and self-employment. “In 2050, 90 per cent of employment will be gig jobs,” he predicted.
He urged Kenyans, especially the youth, to adapt quickly to this shift by equipping themselves with digital skills and embracing innovation.
Without adaptability, he warned, many workers would risk being left behind in an economy increasingly dominated by AI and automation.
KNBS report context
Ndii’s remarks come months after the 2025 Economic Survey by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) revealed that Kenya created 782,300 new jobs in 2024, with the informal sector accounting for 90 per cent of them.
The report showed that only 78,600 jobs were created in the formal sector compared to 703,700 in the informal space, underscoring the shrinking role of payroll employment in Kenya’s economy.