President William Ruto says the Meteorological Department has changed its tune on the El Nino forecast, with significant rains expected during the short rains period.
Speaking on Sunday, October 22, 2023, Ruto said the change is good for the country’s agricultural sector.
“You see the department has now said there will be no El Nino, we will only have significant rains, which is even better for us to get to our farms and produce more,” Ruto said.
“Wamesema kutakuwa tu na mvua kubwa lakini haitafika pale ya kuharibu. Si tunamshukuru mungu. Na hii mvua mingi ambayo tutapata tumejipanga, tumepanga wakulima watuzalishie chakula. (They (Met Department) have said there will be significant rainfall, which is not destructive. We thank God. The rainfall will find us ready for farmers to produce food for us).”
According to Ruto, the rains are as a result of prayers conducted in February at the Nyayo Stadium, where Kenya Kwanza adherents converged to pray for rains at the start of the year.
“There are those who criticised us when we prayed for rains. They said a whole president is praying for rain. We now have more rains than we have had in four years, that is God’s doing,” he said.
El Nino forecast
In its forecast, the weatherman indicated that the country will experience enhanced (above average) rainfall that will be well distributed in both time and space.
“During OND 2023, it is expected that most parts of the country will experience enhanced (above average) rainfall that will be well distributed in both time and space. The forecast indicates a high probability that some counties in the Northeastern region are likely to experience above-average rainfall,” the Met Department’s forecast read in part.
In what seems to be a non-commital forecast, the Met Department suggested that there could be El Niño conditions driven by warmer-than-average SSTs over the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean.
“According to most of the global climate models, El Niño conditions are likely to persist throughout the OND season. Additionally, the warmer-than-average SSTs in the Western Equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to the East African coastline), coupled with cooler-than-average SSTs over the Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to Australia) constitutes a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that is favourable for enhanced rainfall over most of East Africa,” the weatherman says.
The department, however, predicted that there would be occasional storms over several parts of the country during the season.
