Supercomputer predicts who will win the 2026/27 Champions League
By Joel Masibo, September 8, 2026Arsenal have been handed a major vote of confidence ahead of the 2026/27 UEFA Champions League campaign, with the Opta supercomputer ranking Mikel Arteta’s side as the favourite to win the competition.
The prediction comes just months after the Gunners suffered one of the most painful defeats in the club’s European history, losing the 2025/26 Champions League final to Paris Saint-Germain on penalties in Budapest.
According to Opta’s latest projections, Arsenal have a 20.9 per cent chance of lifting the trophy, narrowly ahead of Bayern Munich at 19.4 per cent. Manchester City are third with 12.3 per cent, while Barcelona and defending champions PSG complete the top five with 8.2 per cent and 7.1 per cent, respectively.
The figures shown on the poster are therefore for the 2026/27 men’s Champions League, rather than a prediction of last season’s competition. The graphic carries a Women’s Champions League logo, but the teams and Opta figures relate to the men’s tournament.
From heartbreak in Budapest to tournament favourites
Arsenal’s new status is particularly striking given how close they came to ending their long wait for European glory last season.
The Gunners reached the final in Budapest after producing an outstanding campaign. They became the first team to win all eight matches in the Champions League league phase, scoring 23 goals and conceding only four.
Their knockout run continued with victories over Bayer Leverkusen and Sporting CP before they edged Atlético Madrid 2-1 on aggregate in the semi-finals. That sent Arsenal into their first Champions League final since their 2006 defeat by Barcelona.
But the final against PSG ended in devastating fashion.
Kai Havertz gave Arsenal an early lead in the sixth minute after Leandro Trossard forced a mistake in the PSG defence. Arsenal subsequently spent long periods defending their advantage before PSG levelled through Ousmane Dembélé from the penalty spot in the 65th minute.
Neither side could find a winner during the remainder of normal time or extra time, sending the contest to penalties. PSG eventually prevailed 4-3 in the shootout, with Gabriel Magalhães missing Arsenal’s decisive attempt.
The defeat was particularly cruel because Arsenal had gone through the entire Champions League campaign without losing a match in normal play. UEFA records their 2025/26 campaign as 11 wins and four draws across 15 matches, with the only defeat coming via the shootout in the final.
Why Opta still rates Arsenal highest
Opta’s prediction suggests the final defeat has not significantly damaged the perception of Arsenal’s underlying strength.
In fact, the Gunners are now rated as the strongest team in the world according to Opta’s Power Rankings, which helps explain why they have been placed above Bayern despite the small difference between the two sides. Arsenal are also given a 93.8 per cent probability of reaching the knockout stages.
Bayern Munich are the closest challengers at 19.4 per cent. The German champions are actually rated as the most likely team to finish top of the league phase, with Arsenal second at 18.8per cent. The two sides are also scheduled to meet in the league phase, adding an immediate heavyweight test to Arsenal’s European campaign.
Manchester City occupy third place with a 12.3 per cent chance of winning the trophy. Barcelona are fourth at 8.2 per cent, while PSG, despite being the reigning champions, are only fifth at 7.1 per cent.
The remainder of the top 10 consists of Liverpool (6.1 per cent), Real Madrid (4.4 per cent), Manchester United (3.8 per cent), Inter Milan (3.6 per cent) and Aston Villa (2 per cent).
PSG’s lower ranking adds another layer
Perhaps the most intriguing element of the prediction is PSG’s position.
Luis Enrique’s team have won the Champions League in each of the past two seasons, first defeating Inter Milan 5-0 in the 2025 final before overcoming Arsenal on penalties in 2026. UEFA confirms PSG’s latest European run ended with them retaining the trophy after the 1-1 draw and 4-3 shootout victory over Arsenal.
Yet Opta gives the French champions only a 7.1 per cent probability of completing an unprecedented three-peat. That places them behind Arsenal, Bayern, Manchester City and Barcelona.
It illustrates an important point about the poster: the percentages are probabilities, not predictions of what will definitely happen. Arsenal having a 20.9 per cent chance means they are the single most likely winner in Opta’s model, but the model still gives them almost an 80 per cent combined probability of not winning the trophy.
A chance for Arsenal to turn pain into motivation
For Arteta and his players, however, the ranking provides another indication that last season’s final defeat was viewed as a near miss rather than evidence that Arsenal are incapable of competing at Europe’s highest level.
They have already demonstrated that they can dominate the league phase, negotiate difficult knockout ties and reach the final. The outstanding question is whether they can take the final step when the margins become microscopic.
The 2026 final showed how fine those margins can be. Arsenal led PSG early, defended effectively for much of the match and survived 120 minutes without conceding from open play. But when the contest went to penalties, PSG’s greater experience in such situations ultimately proved decisive.
Now, rather than being viewed simply as the team that lost the previous final, Arsenal begin the new European campaign as Opta’s number-one contender.
That creates an intriguing narrative for the season ahead: Arsenal have gone from being the side that watched PSG celebrate in Budapest to the statistical favourite expected to challenge for the trophy again.
And if the supercomputer’s numbers are correct, the road to European redemption could end with Arsenal finally lifting the Champions League trophy for the first time.