El Niño: Kenya Met warns of high likelihood of occurrence and persistence through end of 2026
By Valerian Khakayi, June 10, 2026The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has revealed that it’s closely monitoring the anticipated development of El Niño conditions in 2026.
According to Kenya Met, the forecasts indicate a high likelihood of occurrence and persistence through the end of the year.
In its latest update issued on Wednesday, June 10, 2026, the department said global forecasts suggest that El Niño conditions could significantly influence weather patterns across the country.
“@MeteoKenya is closely monitoring the anticipated development of El Niño conditions in 2026, with forecasts indicating a high likelihood of occurrence and persistence through the end of the year,” Kenya Met said.
“The global forecasts indicate the anticipated development of El Niño conditions in 2026, which could significantly influence weather patterns across the country. Most models suggest the event will be at least moderate and possibly strong.”
Additionally, Kenya Met said it estimates an 80–82 per cent likelihood of El Niño occurring between June and August 2026, noting that forecasts remain subject to change as new climate data becomes available.
“While forecasts remain subject to change as new climate data becomes available, there is an 80-82% likelihood of El Niño during June-August 2026, with probabilities near or above 90-96% for it to continue through the end of 2026,” the update reads.
Expected weather impacts
The Weatherman also noted that El Niño typically has varied effects across Kenya and the wider East African region, depending on the season.
During June, July and August, El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall over western Kenya, while most other parts of the country experience generally dry conditions.
However, during October, November and December, the phenomenon is usually linked to enhanced rainfall across much of the country.
“During June, July and August, El Niño is typically associated with depressed rainfall over the western parts of Kenya while the rest of the country experiences dominantly dry weather conditions. From October to November and December, El Niño is generally associated with increased (enhanced) rainfall over the entire country,” Kenya Met stated.
Public advisory
Kenya Met has urged members of the public to stay informed through official weather updates and advisories as the situation develops. The department said further updates will be issued as forecasts are refined and new data becomes available.
The agency reiterated its commitment to providing timely weather and climate information to safeguard lives, livelihoods, and property through proactive planning and coordinated response measures.
“Members of the public are encouraged to stay informed through official weather updates and advisories. Further information will be issued as forecasts are refined and additional information becomes available,” the weatherman urged.
Additionally, Kenya Met also confirmed that the national October–November–December (OND) 2026 seasonal forecast will be released in late August or early September 2026, with continued collaboration with the National Disaster Operations Centre and other relevant agencies to support preparedness and mitigation efforts.