5 big lessons by-elections revealed after ODM–UDA’s dominant sweep
By Valerian Khakayi, November 28, 2025The just-concluded by-elections saw the broad-based team, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) dominate across key constituencies, offering important insights into the political landscape ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The victorious results provide a stamp of approval for the Broad-Based Government while highlighting shifting voter dynamics, reflecting both continuity and emerging changes in voter behaviour.
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Here are five big lessons from the by-elections.
Approval for the Broad-Based Government
The strong performance by UDA and ODM candidates in multiple constituencies is being seen as a clear endorsement of the Broad-Based Government, signalling public support for President William Ruto’s leadership and policies.
Social media popularity should not be relied upon
The by-election results have revealed that online popularity, which most politicians, especially the United Opposition team, have been relying upon to popularise their campaigns, cannot be relied upon to predict real voting outcomes.
The UDA and ODM’s victory has proven the importance of grassroots mobilisation and direct voter engagement.
ODM–UDA strongholds remain intact
Both ODM and UDA maintained dominance in their respective strongholds, with big win margins in Nyanza and Rift Valley, highlighting that these regions continue to form the backbone of the parties’ electoral support.
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Mt. Kenya East shows signs of swinging towards UDA
The Mbeere North victory suggests that Mt. Kenya East could increasingly favour UDA in future elections, signalling potential shifts in areas that were previously considered competitive after the impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua, who has been heavily campaigning against the current regime in the region.
Ruto could secure a 2027 victory if he inherits Raila’s strongholds
With the joint effort of UDA and ODM, Ruto might inherit Raila Odinga’s historical political strongholds, such as Nairobi, Nyanza, Western, and the Coast, which could significantly boost his chances of securing a smooth path to victory in 2027.
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Importance of grass-roots campaigns
The by-elections underline that while social media influence is strong, it cannot replace the realities of local politics and voter turnout. Parties that prioritise strategic messaging, voter engagement, and policy-based campaigns are more likely to succeed.