Oscar predictions 2026: Early favourites and surprise contenders
By William Muthama, March 9, 2026The 98th Academy Awards (Oscars 2026), widely regarded as the most prestigious awards in the film industry, are set for Sunday, March 15, 2026, capping off a fiercely competitive awards season dominated by 2025 releases.
With nominations announced in January and final voting underway, early favourites have emerged, though surprise contenders could still shake up the race in key categories.
Best picture and director race
The Best Picture category is wide open, but early favourites include Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another and Ryan Coogler’s Sinners.
One Battle After Another is praised for its sharp ensemble storytelling and broad appeal, while Sinners, a historical vampire epic blending horror with blues origins, has impressed critics with its ambition and a 97% Rotten Tomatoes score.
Other films generating strong buzz include Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet, Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein, Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme, Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, Train Dreams, Bugonia, F1 The Movie, and the Brazilian political thriller The Secret Agent .
In Best Director, early favourites include Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) and Ryan Coogler (Sinners), with Chloé Zhao (Hamnet), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) seen as strong contenders who could pull off an upset.
Acting categories
Best Actor is shaping up as one of the tightest races. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) is an early favourite for his transformative dual role, while Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) remains a strong contender. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) has gained late momentum after winning the Golden Globe, adding intrigue to the category.
In Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) is widely considered the frontrunner, with her emotionally powerful performance earning critical and guild acclaim.
Strong challengers include Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), and Emma Stone (Bugonia).
Supporting roles
Best Supporting Actor early favourites include Sean Penn and Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), and Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value).
Best Supporting Actress frontrunners are Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), and Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value).
Other categories to watch
Original and Adapted Screenplay remain crucial: Sinners and Marty Supreme are early picks for Original Screenplay, while Hamnet and Frankenstein could contend for Adapted Screenplay.
Cinematography, Production Design, and Visual Effects are also key, with Frankenstein and Sinners standing out visually. Music categories, including Original Score and Original Song, are predicted to favour Hamnet, Sinners, and One Battle After Another.
Predictions and Surprises
- Best Picture: One Battle After Another or Sinners
- Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson
- Best Actor: Michael B. Jordan
- Best Actress: Jessie Buckley
- Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn or Jacob Elordi
- Best Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan