A historian who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 has declared that ‘a lot would have to go wrong’ for Joe Biden to lose to Donald Trump – in November.
Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington, DC, devised a system, which he terms ’13 Keys’, and wrote a 1980s book explaining the idea.
He says the technique enables him ‘to predict the outcome of the popular vote solely on historical factors and not the use of candidate-preference polls, tactics or campaign events.’
Despite polls showing Biden in trouble nationally and behind in several swing states, Lichtman believes its still in the president’s favor to retain office, with two of his 13 keys – lack of serious primary challenge and incumbency – already in Biden’s favor.
‘That’s two keys off the top,’ he said. ‘That means six more keys would have to fall to predict his defeat. A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.’
Lichtman is not impressed by polls showing Trump either competitive with or beating Biden nationally and in key swing states.
‘They’re mesmerized by the wrong things, which is the polls,’ he said. ‘First of all, polls six, seven months before an election have zero predictive value.’
It doesn’t mean the Biden campaign can act like it’s a sure thing they’ll repeat victory.
‘It’s always possible there could be a cataclysmic enough event outside the scope of the keys that could affect the election and here we do have, for the first time, not just a former president but a major party candidate sitting in a trial and who knows if he’s convicted – and there’s a good chance he will be – how that might scramble things.’
Lichtman claims the COVID-19 pandemic was an historical event that made him predict Biden’s victory in 2020.
‘The pandemic is what did him in,’ he told The Guardian.
‘He congratulated me for predicting him but he didn’t understand the keys. The message of the keys is it’s governance not campaigning that counts and instead of dealing substantively with the pandemic, as we know, he thought he could talk his way out of it and that sank him.’
However, there are some of the keys working in Trump’s favor.
One of the keys is a significant third-party challenger, which may be Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s role in the race.
Two of the keys involve the economy and while some economic numbers have trended in Biden’s favor, he has yet to see his approval rating tick up for it.
Social unrest is another key that tracks against Biden, with college campuses now a hotbed for anti-Israel protesting, with many of the young people referring to the president as ‘Genocide Joe.’
Both the incumbent’s charisma and the challenger’s charisma are also seen as keys and while many feel both candidates are too old, age appears to be more of a factor against Biden than Trump.
It should be noted that while Lichtman technically was incorrect in 2000, predicting Al Gore would win, though he believes that to be a stolen election and said that Gore won the popular vote.
However, he also takes credit for getting Trump’s 2016 victory correct despite Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote.
He admits that regardless of result, no system can ever be completely foolproof.
‘It’s nerve-racking because there are a lot of people who’d love to see me fail.’ And if he does? ‘I’m human. It doesn’t mean my system’s wrong. Nothing is perfect in the human world.’
